Polymarket saw $529 million traded on bets related to the bombing of Iran

Prediction market users have placed – and profited from – big bets on the bombing of Iran by the US and Israeli militaries.

Polymarket had $529 million in contracts traded at the time of the attack, according to Bloomberg. An analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly created accounts won $1 million by correctly betting that the US would strike Iran by February 28 – behavior that could indicate insider trading.

The bets may simply reflect broader speculation about US intentions in Iran, but Bubblemaps CEO Nicholas Wyman said the spread of information « involving war or conflict » combined with Polymarket’s anonymity « may create incentives for informed actors to act early. »

Back in January, analytics firm Polysights also saw an apparent spike in bets on the likelihood that Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer be in the role by the end of March.

Responding to concerns that such bets could essentially put a financial incentive on murder, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said: « We do not list markets directly related to death. When there are markets where the potential outcomes include death, we create the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. » He added that Kalshi will refund all fees from these bets.