Trump has no idea what he has released

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A guide to what the US elections in 2024 mean to Washington and the world

We should rely on Donald Trump’s instincts, says Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House of Representatives. Alternatively, Johnson and his Caucasus should be driven in the opposite direction. It’s too late for Republicans to return to a normal party – Faith in Trump is a principle of their organization. But they could play loyalism by attracting Trump from the edge. In addition to its work, the future of the global economy and every American pension fund depends on it.

Their job is complicated by the fact that Trump still thinks his winners. Try to stand in her shoes. His 2011 Obama’s foreign birth conspiracy for his 2024 sentence for crime, and between so many points, Trump has almost been left dead every year. But his Phoenix continues to rise. Trump is a fantasyist whose deepest fantasy he is unstoppable winner. Why would a small market turmoil stop him?

The starting point is that Trump is a hammer and the rest of the world, as well as half of America, is a nail. Sometimes a hammer can focus on selected nails or soften its impact, but he is always a hammer. The fact that some of Trump’s closest supporters, such as Bill Ackman, a New York Hedge Facility Nurse, are surprised by his global tariff warfare. Trump promised in almost every campaign speech to release the trade war where we are now.

He has accused foreigners to tear America since the mid-1980s. Note that her obsession was in Japan, not in the Soviet Union. Trump has always been the most angry with allies and friends. His deepest contempt is now reserved for Europe and Canada. Psychologists were extra -realized for the real estate that Trump tried to order for his own siblings. If the instinct is to tear people, including the closest, assumes that everything is a method.

The mystery is the reason why so many-Ackman’s other billionaires to Venezuelas in Florida, bent, Miss Who Trump is. The trillion comment has been wasted, accusing the wrong people of the Trump fighter syndrome. Real TDs suffer from those who constantly see a rational actor or an economic chess game where there is nothing. The entire market undoubtedly suffers from this syndrome. Shortly after collapsing on Monday morning, a fake press release appeared, according to which Trump announced a break of his tariffs this week. Market more than removed their opening losses. All of these winnings, in turn, were wiped out when the White House denied.

If the online theme can change the bear market to return the bull for one minute and back, Trump has the world in his palm. I benefited the rumor that he could be sensible can trigger a buying vima. Rome emperors would envy one man’s finger treatment. Still, at some point, possibly immediate, Trump could be forced to interrupt at least some of his « day of freedom ». It triggers a great relief rally. But his break is not more secure than the Stryy driftwood. The same may apply to his threats to increase the new 50 % tariff in China.

Markets will brighten up all tips on bilateral offers applicants – Japan, China and India should be carefully monitored. Investors should also pay attention to the fact that there are such agreements between foreign governments and Trump, not his administration. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance, trade and US trade are often outside the loop. Because of the high lack of Trump’s public role and private investments, the scope of non-trade barter trade is large.

The idea that Trump’s impact is limited to the economy in the trade is also wishful thinking. Foreigners own a critical part of the US Ministry of Finance. The constant large amount of assets that the issuer the world loses trust is the difference between Trump’s recession and Trump’s depression. To this end, European governments seem to have better instincts than the market for equity and fixed income. Instead of being expanding the EU, the EU is just a modest toolbox. This is not because Brussels believes that Trump is likely to adopt Comity. This is because it is afraid of the spiral of the Tit-for-Tat shop breaks the global financial system.

In any case, this moment to teach is unnecessarily late. Trump’s reasonable washing has lost their credibility. There is no school of mercantilism of foreign policy realism or trade that could explain Trump’s actions. If you want to predict the world, study her psychology. When Trump is responsible, stay short in America.

edward.luce@ft.com